In the USL Championship, specific trends have tied successive postseasons together; defensive-minded teams with either a great goalkeeper or talismanic striker tend to do best. USL League One defies such clear conclusions. The 2023 final pitted a North Carolina team with League One’s best defensive record against a Charlotte side with the division’s second-worst xG against. In 2024, expansion Spokane came up against an Omaha team that was the product of an intentional, multi-year project. Knoxville’s defensive identity was the storyline in 2025, but their per-game xG increased by 13% in the postseason to earn hardware.
Sometimes, winning it all is just as simple as sticking to your guns and getting hot at the right time. Which of League One’s eight playoff teams have the best chance to lift a trophy at the end of November? I’m sorting the field into favorites, contenders, and dark horses to find out.
The favorites
Athletic Club Boise finished 2026 with League One’s best expected goal difference at +22, and they lost only one match after the end of July. Moreover, Boise’s spine is full of players (think Nick Moon, Blake Bodily, and Charlie Adams) with playoff experience from across the USL. The club’s average age of 28.0 is the third-highest in the division, and that will protect against the naivety you’d expect from an expansion club. No team in the league gave up less xG per game, and no team in the playoffs is as organized in possession. Even if the attack runs cold, all-league defensive candidates like Jake Dengler, Jonathan Ricketts, and holding midfielder Philip Mayaka make Boise extremely well-suited to November’s brand of soccer.
