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USL Championship 2026 playoff tiers: Favorites, dark horses, and better-luck-next-times

With the Championship's postseason kicking off later this week, who’s for real, who could make a run, and who’s just lucky to have made the cut?

Tampa Bay Rowdies

The leaves are turning, the mercury is dropping in the thermometer, and the USL Championship playoffs are back for another year. Every fall, 16 teams meet to decide a champion. Every fall, the pathway to the title is full of surprises.

Historically, in-form clubs and teams with a defensive identity have tended to make deep runs, but the joy of the postseason is how it subverts expectations. Which of the 16 teams are best prepared for the gauntlet ahead, and who should start planning for the offseason? I’m putting every playoff team into tiers from favorite to also-rans to find out.

The favorites

The Players’ Shield winner has lost in the first round of the playoffs in two of the last three years. I’d be stunned if that same fate befell the Tampa Bay Rowdies. Tampa Bay finished with the USL’s best goal difference (+26) and expected goal difference (+22). They can lock down a match defensively, both in a block and as an aggressive pressing and counterpressing side. Moreover, Tampa Bay has a variety of scorers – MD Myers, Russell Cicerone, Evan Conway, etc. – who can challenge any opponent. Nothing is guaranteed at this time of year, but the Rowdies are built to make a run.

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