The USL Cup’s group stage is far from decided, but with 14 teams out of 42 having earned at least four points through two rounds of matches, the competitive landscape is starting to come together. Only eight teams across the Championship and League One — the seven group winners and one wildcard team — will advance to the knockouts, however.
This weekend’s games skewed in favor of existing favorites, and upsets were relatively rare. Even so, the bubble got even messier thanks to strong showings from League One standouts Athletic Club Boise and Portland Hearts of Pine.
Now that we’re halfway done with group play, who’s got the best chance at pushing into the knockout round. I’m breaking down all 42 clubs and ranking their title hopes to find out.
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Trending: No change
Result: 4-1 win at Miami
In my most recent USL Championship power rankings, I moaned that Tampa Bay hasn’t been emphatic enough when putting opponents to bed. What a difference a week makes! Not only did the Rowdies go to Miami and earn three points, but they put on a show at Pitbull Stadium.
Tampa Bay’s ability to mix it up in build was their strength. At times, that meant getting Dion Acoff and Charlie Ostrem involved in a 2-4-4ish build structure. If, for instance, a No. 8 could one-two past a Miami wingback in tandem with Acoff or Ostrem, it immediately forced a chain reaction of defensive rotations. The Rowdies mixed in that classier build with directness; if Miami hedged up to try and stop those patterns, Tampa Bay would gladly play over the top.
Tampa Bay Rowdies
The variation didn’t stop there. The more the Rowdies probed, the more they realized a shape with either Ostrem or midfielder Max Schneider dropping into a soft back three could break Miami’s back. When Tampa Bay got on the board just 12 minutes in, Ostrem’s deep presence – counterbalanced by a flying run up the right from Acoff – opened space through the middle for Louis Perez to rocket the Rowdies to a 1-0 edge.
Tampa Bay rolled from there. A gorgeous side-to-side sequence furnished MD Myers with a headed finish in open play, and two set piece goals sandwiched around that conversion. The Rowdies never let Miami up for air along the way. This team will still need to keep up that 90-minute intensity against more organized foes at higher-leverage moments, but Saturday was a statement all its own.
2. Sacramento Republic
Trending: No change
Result: 1-0 win at Oakland
There’s plenty to recommend this Sacramento team as a contender in the USL Cup, but the sheer athleticism of their midfield might take the cake. Neill Collins used that edge to the utmost against Oakland over the weekend, shifting his press to address one of the Championship’s most versatile attacking teams. That defensive masterclass paired with reliable offensive patterns to yield a comfortable Republic win.
