At this point last year, three League One clubs had a mathematical chance of climbing from below the cut line into the eighth seed. With three weeks to play in 2026, six clubs are mathematically alive. The contestants run the gamut from a Westchester side with a +2 goal difference (and increasingly intelligent personnel usage) to a Portland team with a -13 xG margin. The six are chasing a Fort Wayne team that, despite stellar underlying numbers, can’t put the race to rest.
Week 31 across the division stubbornly declined to clarify the situation, but it was full of big developments from the bottom to the top of the League One table. What stood out across the division? Let’s dig in.
Antelope Valley’s collapse
With Saturday's 2-1 loss in Westchester, AV Alta have now dropped seven matches in a row. When the losing streak began in early August, Alta were sixth in the table, had a +6 goal difference, and looked set to make the playoffs. Now, Alta are in 13th with a -7 margin.
If this run had happened in isolation, it’d still be unfortunate. That Alta did this exact same thing last season hints at a deeper malaise. Alta sat second in the table halfway through the 2025 campaign and looked the part of a potential Players’ Shield contender. Then, they ripped off a 14-game winless streak to miss the postseason by a single point. What was true then is true now: manager Brian Kleiban’s style is too staid, his defense is too meek, and there hasn’t been a hint of innovation when the results have gone awry.
The numbers this weekend were as eye-popping as ever. Alta kept 73% of possession against Westchester and maintained a 79% field tilt, yet half of their xG came from one goalmouth scramble sequence in the 75th minute where a flood of runners in a crowded box never actually made clean contact with the ball. That sequence – one where striker Cesar Bahena drifted wide and played off center mid Maboumou Alassane to generate a crossing opportunity – was the exception that proved a dismal rule.
More often than not, Antelope Valley stalled. So many of their upfield receptions came with an attacker dropping low without any forward momentum, and there was never enough spark up the wings. That’s evident above. Left back Alfredo Ortiz is on the ball within Alta’s 4-2-4ish shape, but his only options are Ilias Aoumaich and Renden Thomas (green) on backwards-facing drops in. Bahena, meanwhile, is sitting in the pivot with Alassane replacing him high. There’s no verticality and no ability to get direct.
