Two years into the unified, inter-league era of the USL Cup, it’s worth wondering: what does the cup accomplish?
On paper, the tournament is meant to foster local rivalries, encourage attacking-minded soccer, and provide drama within the long USL season. While the action on the pitch has been perfectly exciting, it’s less clear that the USL Cup is actually moving the needle.
Admittedly, Saturday’s slate was an advertisement for the potential of the cup. The Charlotte Independence and Charleston Battery needed a late-night penalty shootout with advancement on the line; Miami FC exploded for five goals to claim a wildcard spot in the knockout round. The Louisville-Lexington and Madison-Omaha rivalries both brought fireworks, and the El Paso Locomotive used the competition to give Cristo Fernandez his debut.
The USL Cup has undeniably produced moments of excitement, but that isn’t making a mark by the numbers. Take offensive production – ostensibly a focus of the cup since goals scored are the first wildcard tiebreaker. You wouldn’t know it by the numbers. Over the last two seasons, the average USL team puts up 1.41 goals in the cup and 1.37 in the league. Shot attempts (12.1 versus 11.9) and expected goals (1.38 versus 1.32) are similarly static.
In a strict sense, there has been a small jump, but it’s impossible to credit those rounding-error increases to the USL Cup’s rules. It’s just as likely that routs featuring Championship juggernauts or blowouts at the expense of rested lineups are affecting the data.
