- Total Backheeled Bucks Wagered To Date: $300.00
- Total Backheeled Bucks Won To Date: $351.01
- Backheeled Bucks Net Profit: $51.01 (17% rate of return)
Another winning weekend, baby! Thanks to a Daniel Gazdag goal and purely chaotic ending to last weekend’s game between the Philadelphia Union and Orlando City, our big +260 bet came through.
Let’s try to pull a Sacramento Republic and string together a winning streak against MLS opposition, shall we? Here are my three bets for this weekend’s MLS action.
LOS ANGELES FC VS. SEATTLE SOUNDERS
Bet: LAFC to win, over 1.5 total goals, over 7.5 total corners
If you couldn’t already tell from that long line of detail that I had to include for this bet, it took me a while to find something that really worked for this pick.
I really wanted to hang onto LAFC’s coat tails for this one. They’re playing at home, they’re probably the best team in the league, and it seems like the stage is set for Gareth Bale to do something special in his home debut. But Vegas already knows that. They know that LAFC deserve to be heavy favorites at home against a Seattle Sounders team that’s struggling to find its way right now.
Sure, Seattle pulled off a comeback win with 10 men against the Rapids last week. But they’ve lost three of their last four games and four of their last six games. I still think Seattle are charging up for some sort of late season run into third or fourth in the West, but I’m banking on that run starting after this weekend at the earliest.
So when I found the right pair of qualifiers to add on to this LAFC bet, I decided to take it. The first prong of this bet is that LAFC have to win. That one’s pretty straightforward. The next prong is that this game needs at least two goals: LAFC have only played one game that ended with less than two goals all season long, so I’m feeling good about that one.
Finally, LAFC and Seattle need to combine for at least eight corners in this match. According to Second Spectrum, the Sounders average 4.7 corner kicks per game, while LAFC average 6 per game. It’s not a guarantee that they combine to hit that eight corner threshold, but it’s totally possible. And when it comes to betting on MLS games, possible is the best you’re ever going to do.
Even with these qualifiers, getting positive odds out of a home win for LAFC on Friday night is right where I want to be.
AUSTIN FC AT SPORTING KANSAS CITY
Bet: Austin to win
This line confuses me, I’m not going to lie. I know that Sporting Kansas City are playing at home, but getting +165 on the fourth-best team in MLS against the worst team in MLS based on points per game is an absolute steal.
Austin FC are second in the Western Conference right now and are averaging an impressive 1.86 points per game. They lost to the New York Red Bulls last weekend 4-3 in a wild game at Q2, but that was only their fifth loss all year. I’m not sold on Austin as a trophy contender this year (which isn’t a hot take, given that this is their second-ever season in MLS), but they certainly have enough firepower to take down the worst team in the West.
Speaking of, Sporting Kansas City just played 120 minutes against Sacramento in their loss in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals on Wednesday.
They’re going to be tired. Johnny Russell? Played the whole game. Daniel Salloi? Played the whole game. Remi Walter? Played the whole game. Andreu Fontas, Nicolas Isimat-Mirin, and Graham Zusi? They played the whole game, too. That’s a lot of Peter Vermes’ key contributors who put a lot of miles on their legs this week. I’m expecting a rotated SKC lineup against Austin, which only makes this bet more enticing.
You could juice this line a bit with an achievable goals qualifier or some other add-on, but I’m keeping things simple on this one. An Austin FC win on Saturday gets us a great return on our Backheeled Bucks.
FC CINCINNATI AT INTER MIAMI
Bet: Cincinnati double chance, under 4.5 total goals
Before we dive in, I want to remind folks of what “double chance” means. As a quick refresher, a double chance bet is a bet that covers two out of a possible three outcomes in a game. In this case, betting on FC Cincinnati, double chance means that if they win or tie against Inter Miami on Saturday, we satisfy that portion of the bet.
Not too complicated, right?
The reason why I like this double chance bet is because we can still get some pretty strong value out Cincy. Pat Noonan’s team has only lost once in their last eight games – and now that Lucho Acosta has served his full three-game suspension, he should be ready to go on Saturday. I like Cincinnati’s chances of at least getting point on the road in Miami.
According to FBref, FC Cincinnati currently have a positive expected goals differential and are sixth in the Eastern Conference in that metric. Inter Miami, on the other hand, have a negative xGD and are 11th in the East in that stat. Those numbers aren’t everything, but they clearly illustrate what these two teams have shown on the field this season: Cincy should be a playoff team, while Inter Miami are at home a little further down the table.
Miami have only won one of their last six games (and yes, I’m counting that Barcelona friendly among those six…if Phil Neville is going to call it the biggest game in club history, then I’m going to count it).
Factoring in Miami’s mediocre form, I think a Cincinnati double chance with under 4.5 total goals is a great way to go this weekend.