|Moneyline (Regular Time)|
|Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.||59.0%||19.3%||21.7%|
|Over/Under (Regular Time)|
|O 2.5||U 2.5||BTTS|
|Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.||72.1%||27.9%||67.9%|
What The Book Sees
The Line suggests that the Galaxy are roughly 4 xGD stronger than Austin over a full season.
What Insights Sees
The BI model sees a wider gap, with the Galaxy in the top 10 and Austin in the bottom 10. The Galaxy, despite their results, tend to control the flow of the game, a positive indicator for future success.
What we reasonably expect...
Both teams will heavily priority using the ball on the ground, with clear intentionality, sometimes to a fault. The Galaxy, as the home team and a team wanting to make a statement, will likely press high and try to get the ball back as quickly as possible; Austin will likely be more comfortable in a mid-block, waiting for a Galaxy mistake in progression through the middle of the field.
The high-leverage variable will likely be...
Riqui Puig's interest level.
Many people have applauded Puig's performances on the ball. The praise is deserved. That said, he's been a detriment to the team when he isn't on the ball, floating in both defensive block and defensive transition moments. It's extremely hard (impossible?) to win in MLS when a player doesn't compete - the Galaxy have already been through this - regardless of the player's talent on the ball. If Puig competes at anywhere close to league average, it lifts the Galaxy materially.