Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-130	+280	+280
	56.5%	26.3%	26.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	59.0%	19.3%	21.7%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-175	+135	-190
	63.6%	42.6%	65.5%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	72.1%	27.9%	67.9%

What The Book Sees

The Line suggests that the Galaxy are roughly 4 xGD stronger than Austin over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model sees a wider gap, with the Galaxy in the top 10 and Austin in the bottom 10. The Galaxy, despite their results, tend to control the flow of the game, a positive indicator for future success.

What we reasonably expect...

Both teams will heavily priority using the ball on the ground, with clear intentionality, sometimes to a fault. The Galaxy, as the home team and a team wanting to make a statement, will likely press high and try to get the ball back as quickly as possible; Austin will likely be more comfortable in a mid-block, waiting for a Galaxy mistake in progression through the middle of the field.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

Riqui Puig's interest level.

Many people have applauded Puig's performances on the ball. The praise is deserved. That said, he's been a detriment to the team when he isn't on the ball, floating in both defensive block and defensive transition moments. It's extremely hard (impossible?) to win in MLS when a player doesn't compete - the Galaxy have already been through this - regardless of the player's talent on the ball. If Puig competes at anywhere close to league average, it lifts the Galaxy materially.