Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-170	+310	+380
	63.0%	24.4%	20.8%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	55.9%	24.8%	19.3%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-145	+115	-140
	59.2%	46.5%	58.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	44.5%	55.5%	45.5%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that ATL is roughly 13 xGD, or 9 points, stronger than CHI over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model views both sides as top-10 teams, with ATL slightly stronger.

What we reasonably expect...

ATL will want to dominate the ball, playing through the center midfielders and finding the attacking midfielders in the pockets in front of Chicago's back four.

Without the ball, ATL will try to press and get the ball back as quickly as possible. Chicago, in possession, will be fluid and dynamic; there are not consistent recognizable patterns, but the team looks cohesive and dangerous with the ball. Without the ball, Chicago look strected and unprepared, though they have a talented back four who can make plays.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

CHI's front 2 wandering in defensive block moments.

CHI tends to start their defensive block sets from a stretched position, with more than 25 yards from center backs to center forward. They want to be aggressive, but the highest players move toward the ball before they should. It creates an open game, which they seem to prefer. It's as if Chicago is daring the team to get into the game that Chicago wants. But it leaves Chicago vulnerable and at the control of the opponent. If a team remains patient and sharp, Chicago are in trouble. ATL have the ability to be one of the most patient and technical teams in the league.