Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | -200 | +330 | +425 |
| 66.7% | 23.3% | 19.0% | |
| Insights |
62.7% | 19.9% | 17.3% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -165 | +125 | -145 |
| 62.3% | 44.4% | 59.2% | |
| Insights |
61.8% | 38.2% | 57.1% |
What the Book sees...
Based on the Book’s math, this line implies that LAFC are 17 xGD stronger than Austin FC over the course of a full season.
What Insights sees…
Insights’ analysis lines up with the Book for this game on Saturday. Based on Insights’ team ratings, LAFC is the best team in MLS right now, while Austin FC is currently the 15th best team in the league.
Based on LAFC’s impressively talented and roster and early success in 2023, it’s not a surprise that the BHI model values them so much. Even with a midweek Concacaf Champions League game against the Vancouver Whitecaps factoring into manager Steve Cherundolo’s lineup decisions, they’re still major home favorites. There is relatively little drop-off between the first and second player in every outfield position for LAFC, so fixture congestion hurts LAFC less than it does other teams around the league.
Austin, for their part, currently have a negative expected goal differential and are experiencing expected regression after success in 2022.
What we reasonably expect...
LAFC to control the game with a mixture of direct play, patient possession, and defensive pressure.
One of the things that makes LAFC so dangerous is their ability to hurt teams in multiple different ways. Based on our data, Cherundolo’s team is third in the league in xG per game (1.76), in the top third of the league in xG per game created from transitions starting in the attacking half (0.35), and in the top half of the league in xG per game created from central buildup (0.53). They’re either excellent or above average in both direct transition play and in sustained possession.
As the home team, it’s reasonable to expect LAFC to attempt to dictate the flow of the game through their varied attacking approach. Austin will attempt to wrestle control away from their opponents with long, sprawling possession sequences.
The high-leverage variable will likely be...
How Austin’s center backs cope with LAFC’s talent advantage.
Austin FC have allowed more xG than all but five teams in MLS this year — they currently give up 1.54 xG per game. While Cherundolo may rotate at least part of LAFC’s attacking trio for this match (possibly using Stipe Biuk instead of Carlos Vela in the frontline), Austin’s backline will still have to deal with the most threatening frontline in MLS. Playing away from home, Austin must learn to be comfortable playing under sustained pressure in their 4-4-2 block.
If Austin FC’s defense has stabilized after an unfortunate string of injuries and a slow start to the year (relative to their own expectations), their chances of getting a result increase.