Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-150	+290	+340
	60.0%	25.6%	22.7%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	50.1%	26.1%	23.8%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-135	+205	-140
	57.4%	32.8%	58.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	44.3%	55.7%	47.6%

What the Book sees...

Based on the Book’s math, this line implies that FC Cincinnati will finish roughly 9 xGD better than Inter Miami over a full season.

What we reasonably expect...

FC Cincinnati attempt to dominate the game with a mixture of high pressing and sustained possession sequences out of their 3-4-1-2 shape.

When Cincinnati have the ball, Lucho Acosta will roam behind Inter Miami’s makeshift midfield line. Miami will be without starting central midfielder Gregore for this game. Manager Phil Neville also may opt to bring starting striker Josef Martinez off the bench after he appeared in both of Venezuela’s matches during the international break (though only for a combined 86 minutes across the two games).

Overall, it’s reasonable to expect Cincinnati to control this game and to maximize their talent advantage against an Inter Miami team that is still very much trying to find themselves without Gregore anchoring their midfield.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

Lucho Acosta’s quality advantage relative to Miami’s midfield.

So far this year, Acosta has added more value with his passing as a No. 10 for Pat Noonan than all but three players in MLS. He’s also provided value with his movement off the ball an his ability to receive the ball in dangerous areas to then create chances for his team. Given that Miami are still sorting out their ideal midfield personnel, Acosta will have the opportunity to poke holes in Miami’s pressing structure and their more reserved defensive shape.

If Acosta continues to dominate like he has for much of this year, it’s difficult to see value in this game for Miami. If Miami’s midfield personnel has adapted, then Miami might have an edge.