Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | +125 | +235 | +190 |
| 44.4% | 29.9% | 34.5% | |
| Insights |
42.5% | 26.7% | 30.9% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -145 | +110 | -190 |
| 59.2% | 47.6% | 65.5% | |
| Insights |
45.9% | 54.1% | 50.7% |
What The Book Sees
Using the Book’s math, this line implies that the LA Galaxy will finish roughly 10 xGD higher than the Portland Timbers over the course of a full season.
What Insights Sees
Insights’ model also rates the LA Galaxy higher than the Portland Timbers. Both teams have struggled so far in 2023, with Portland earning just three points from four games and LA earning just two points from three games. However, the Timbers’ underlying numbers and growing absences list is a real concern. Based on our data, Portland are generating the third lowest xG per game in MLS and allowing the third most xG per game. The Galaxy are mid-table or higher in those same categories.
Home Team Is Good Value If…
Portland allow a league-average amount of chances.
As referenced above, the Timbers have struggled defensively this year, allowing the third most xG per game in MLS (1.75). They were particularly exposed against Atlanta Untied last weekend in a 5-1 loss, where they added an extra defender and played a five-at-the-back shape, but still struggled to find any sort of defensive solidity.
Portland have players who can create dangerous moments in transition. Eryk Williamson and Santiago Moreno were both above-average passers and players at their position in 2022, based on our data. But until there’s a solid defensive structure behind Williamson, Moreno, and others, the Timbers’ attacking firepower won’t have the chance to consistently drive forward into space. Shoring up their defensive structure will go a long way towards making Portland better value. Improving to the league average xG allowed per game figure (1.29) is a good place to start.
Away Team Is Good Value If…
The LA Galaxy’s wingers start creating danger.
Riqui Puig added more value with his passing on a per 90 minute basis than any player in the league last year, based on our data. While he opened games with his passing, he did it more as a right-sided No. 8 than as a dedicated No. 10. On the whole, Puig is more progressor than creator: he averaged just 0.17 xA per game in 2022, which wasn’t in the top 50 players in MLS last year.
The Galaxy need wingers (especially this week without their top two No. 9s due to injury and international duty) who can get on the end of Puig’s progressive passes and create danger. So far in 2023, none of their primary wingers are averaging more than 0.30 xG+xA per game. LA need more from their wide attackers - more production from those positions could turn the Galaxy into a top four team in the Western Conference.