Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+115	+145	+200
	46.5%	40.8%	33.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	43.3%	25.2%	31.5%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-145	+110	-175
	59.2%	47.6%	63.6%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	52.5%	47.5%	55.9%

What The Book Sees

The Line suggests that LAFC are roughly 7 goals better than SEA throughout a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model views both SEA and LAFC as top-six teams, with LAFC distinctly at the top of the league.

Home Team Is Good Value If

Seattle bypass pressure in the air out of their own defensive third.

LAFC's most advantageous trait is their ability to create chances through high quality turnovers. And despite how good they are, opposing teams often still try to play through lines in their own half. Seattle likely won't have that urge this weekend. They conceded after a bad turnover in their own half last weekend against Cincinnati, and it seems more likely that Brian Schmetzer will adapt to his opponent rather than entrench into some version of Seattle's own ideals. If Seattle nullifies LAFC's main trait, it limits LAFC's ceiling. Specifically, if SEA can restrict LAFC from one less high qualty transition shot, it's likely worth about 0.15 xG, or 3% off LAFC's probability.

Away Team Is Good Value If

Raul Ruidiaz is not an elite striker (15+ Goals and Assists) anymore.

The starting point assumption right now is that LAFC are the best team in the West. The top team in a conference tends to finish 0-15 xGD ahead of the second-place finisher (with 2019 LAFC being an outlier). For Seattle to be 7 xGD behind, they need to be a historically average second-place team. Seattle has the pieces to play at that level. The main variable seems to be at striker. Raul Ruidiaz is coming back from injury and already dipped in production in 2022; Heber, who started 2023 well, is out hurt this weekend. If we are going to decide if Seattle can be the second best team in the West, it seems like the place to start is Ruidiaz's overall level.