Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	110	275	205
	47.6%	26.7%	32.8%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	51.0%	24.1%	24.9%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-160	130	-215
	61.5%	43.5%	68.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	53.1%	46.9%	54.7%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that PHI are 6 xGD weaker than LAFC over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects both PHI and LAFC as top-5 teams.

What we reasonably expect...

Both teams want to create chances in transtion. LAFC, specifically, have largely given up on building chances through possession. Both teams like to utilize their late arriving outside backs as chance creators.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

PHI remaining disciplined on arriving to the final third.

PHI will want to make a statement after last year's epic MLS Cup loss. LAFC are almost entirely an against-the-ball team now. The two together create a recipe for PHI over-playing. PHI are at the best when they arrive to the final third with direct play and then slow down. If they over-pass because they want to show dominance, it plays into LAFC's style. Conversely, if PHI stick to their plan and quickly bypass lines into the CFs, and the CFs will have the energy and mobility advantage over Chiellini and Long.