Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | 135 | 300 | 150 |
| 42.6% | 25.0% | 40.0% | |
| Insights |
48.2% | 25.3% | 26.5% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -215 | 170 | -225 |
| 68.3% | 37.0% | 69.2% | |
| Insights |
49.4% | 50.6% | 52.4% |
What The Book Sees
The line suggests that ATL are roughly 15 xGD weaker than MIA over a full season.
What Insights Sees
The BI model projects MIA as a top-10 team and ATL as a high mid-table side.
What we reasonably expect...
Both teams want to control the game and control the ball; both teams like to play through their CMs and into pockets, with outside backs arriving late. MIA switch between a 2CB and 3CB setup, while MIA play mostly out of a 4-2-3-1.
The high-leverage variable will likely be…
Almada vs. Busquets.
MIA are, at this point, clearly a wrecking ball. The decision, I think, comes down to whether the key lever is Messi or anyone else. Do you have to track Messi as closely as possible, because he will exploit any available inch? Or is it impossible to really stop Messi, and your best bet is to make it harder for everyone else (Farias, Campana, Martinez, Alba, Yedlin, Taylor)? Or is Messi a lagging indicator on other things, like Busquets gaining the team control in progression? Our bet is that it’s the last one. Busquets has been fantastic, but he’s also looked the most vulnerable, moving his feet a step slow at times. (The counter point is that he’s shown those moments for about three years and he still ends up on the right side of the fence.) He’s be directly against one of the best attackers in the league, Thiago Almada. If Almada can cause Busquets problems in any phase, it could disrupt Miami in all phases.