Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+115	+260	+205
	46.5%	27.8%	32.8%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	43.1%	25.5%	31.4%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-175	+140	-205
	63.6%	41.7%	67.2%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	49.8%	50.2%	52.7%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that MIA are roughly 7 xGD weaker than SKC over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects SKC as a high mid-table team and MIA, without Messi, as a mid-table team.

What we reasonably expect...

Both teams want to dominate the ball, but MIA are more flexible. MIA would play with 2 CB or 3CB, and could use a technical or an athletic/dynamic lineup. SKC will play out of a 4-3-3 with a single pivot, hoping to isolate Russell 1v1 on the right or find Salloi cutting in from the left, with Pulido either providing the link for runs behind him or poaching in the box.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

Jordi Alba vs. Jonny Russell.

MIA have been very good in elements over the last month. The killer for opponents is - and will be - Jordi Alba's ability to arrive late from outside back. Teams are going to stay compact against MIA to protect against Messi (though not in this game) and Busquets. Yedlin occupies the right channel and tends to stay outside the opposing outside back.  Alba, though, provides danger both from the wide channel and inside/behind the opposing right back. Russell will be key (1) defensively, to block the central channel that Alba likes to receive through, and (2) offensively, to provide a threat in transition to either create chances or make Alba think twice about driving forward.

Note: Again, just to emphasize, MIA will be without Messi, who is on international duty.