Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-125	+285	+290
	55.6%	26.0%	25.6%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	55.7%	22.3%	22.0%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-150	+120	-165
	60.0%	45.5%	62.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	58.0%	42.0%	57.1%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that SKC are roughly 4 xGD (.13/game) stonger than STL over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects SKC as a mid-table team and STL as a lower mid-table side.

What we reasonably expect...

SKC want to dominate the ball; STL will be fine playing against the ball and creating chances in transition.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

SKC center back mistakes.

After 6 months, we're now seeing SKC's first choice lineup and approach. The attack is balanced (Russel wide 1v1s from the right, Salloi outside in from the left); the midfield is aligned. As a result, we return to the original SKC question: Can the center backs play at "playoffs floor" level? Can they avoid big mistakes that could hamstring the team? Rosero should solve that as the no-nonsense option, but he's also had a couple big mistakes already this year. If Rosero and Fontas play mistake-free -- not even "well", just mistake-free -- then SKC will be good value as there ratings will still be lagged to the lineup getting healthy.