|Moneyline (Regular Time)|
|Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.||55.7%||22.3%||22.0%|
|Over/Under (Regular Time)|
|O 2.5||U 2.5||BTTS|
|Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.||58.0%||42.0%||57.1%|
What The Book Sees
The line suggests that SKC are roughly 4 xGD (.13/game) stonger than STL over a full season.
What Insights Sees
The BI model projects SKC as a mid-table team and STL as a lower mid-table side.
What we reasonably expect...
SKC want to dominate the ball; STL will be fine playing against the ball and creating chances in transition.
The high-leverage variable will likely be…
SKC center back mistakes.
After 6 months, we're now seeing SKC's first choice lineup and approach. The attack is balanced (Russel wide 1v1s from the right, Salloi outside in from the left); the midfield is aligned. As a result, we return to the original SKC question: Can the center backs play at "playoffs floor" level? Can they avoid big mistakes that could hamstring the team? Rosero should solve that as the no-nonsense option, but he's also had a couple big mistakes already this year. If Rosero and Fontas play mistake-free -- not even "well", just mistake-free -- then SKC will be good value as there ratings will still be lagged to the lineup getting healthy.