Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | +105 | +265 | +215 |
| 48.8% | 27.4% | 31.7% | |
| Insights |
50.2% | 23.5% | 26.3% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -140 | +110 | -165 |
| 58.3% | 47.6% | 62.3% | |
| Insights |
56.6% | 43.4% | 57.8% |
What The Book Sees
Using the Book’s math, this line projects that the Seattle Sounders will finish roughly 4 xGD higher than FC Cincinnati over the course of a full season. The Book sees Seattle as the better team.
What Insights Sees
It sees two top 10 teams heading into Week 3. FC Cincinnati are currently 8th in Insights’ team ratings, while the Seattle Sounders are currently sitting in 3rd. All told, Insights gives an advantage to Cincinnati relative to the Book on this one. It’s not a wide margin, but an FC Cincinnati win is the most likely outcome and the best value pick here.
Home Team Is Good Value If…
FC Cincinnati can force turnovers in advantageous positions.
So far in 2023, only three teams have generated as much xG per game from transition attacks starting in the opposition half than Cincinnati. It’s a small sample size, but when you factor in that Cincinnati generated the third-most xG in MLS from attacks that started with turnovers in 2022, it becomes more notable. Pat Noonan’s team thrives in transition moments where his No. 10, Lucho Acosta, can thread balls in behind to Brenner and Brandon Vazquez.
The Sounders have been an above-average but not totally stingy defensive transition team this season. If Cincinnati can force turnovers high in the attacking half, they’ll be difficult to stop at home with Acosta floating around Seattle’s double pivot.
Away Team Is Good Value If…
The Seattle Sounders continue to generate high-level chances with the ball.
So far this season, no MLS team has generated more xG from central buildup than Seattle. They’ve created 1.56 xG per game from those attacks in 2023. With Joao Paulo healthy and with quality distribution in the back from Yeimar Gomez Andrade and Jackson Ragen, the Sounders have used the ball more effectively to start this year than they have in recent seasons. Can that continue, especially against a team in Cincinnati that uses three center backs, clogs the midfield in their 3-4-1-2, and generates more effective pressure than either of Seattle’s first two opponents?
Momentum and motivation to prove that they’re "back" as one of MLS’s best teams both favor Seattle. But that stylistic and chance creation question will be key.