Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | -200 | +340 | +450 |
| 66.7% | 22.7% | 18.2% | |
| Insights |
47.2% | 25.0% | 27.8% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -145 | +115 | -165 |
| 59.2% | 46.5% | 62.3% | |
| Insights |
51.4% | 48.6% | 54.3% |
What The Book Sees
The line suggests that MIA are roughly 18 xGD (.52/game) stronger than NSH over a full season
What Insights Sees
The BI model projects that NSH is a top-10 team; MIA is currently a high mid-table team, though the variance remains how as the model figures out the impact of the new players.
What we reasonably expect...
MIA can do everything well right now. Their preference is to play through Busquets into Messi; if either of them is tracked closely, however, then the CBs or CMs can drive forward into space. NSH will try to stay as compact as possible and make it tough for MIA to play through lines. When NSH win possession, they will play forward quickly in transition, with Mukhtar looking to find loose balls and attack an organized defense.
The high-leverage variable will likely be…
Jordi Alba and DeAndre Yedlin in chance creation moments.
MIA have been excellent at everything since Messi, Busquets, and Alba arrived. The simplest story, if everything stays the game, is that if MIA play well, they will win. That said, it's hard to imagine that everything stays the same when MIA have been as good as they have. Teams need to adjust. NSH will likely be happy to do so. The obvious choice would be that teams prioritize the middle more, blocking central channels and forcing MIA wide. Keep the CFs tighter and the wide attackers more central in the defensive block.
Instead of allowing Busquets to break lines to Messi in the middle, force passes wide. It will afford Jordi Alba and Yedlin plenty of space; if they are sharp, MIA will be fine. But it's worth taking that bet rather than the one teams have been making for the last month.