Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+145	+240	+165
	40.8%	29.4%	37.7%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	50.5%	25.7%	23.9%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-145	+115	-190
	59.2%	46.5%	65.5%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	45.8%	54.2%	48.8%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that RBNY are roughly 15 xGD (.44/game) weaker than MIA over a full season. So far in the 2023 season, RBNY have been 1.16 xGD/game stronger; since June 1, RBNY have been 1.51 xGD/game better.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects RBNY has a high mid-table team, and MIA as a mid-table team. MIA's personnel improvements are unprecedented and there is not historical information for the model to build an opinion from. It's likely that the BI model is significantly off, given what we've seen with our eyes through Leagues Cup and USOC.

What we reasonably expect...

RBNY want to play fast, pressing as often as possible and playing forward as often as possible (though less so than earlier in the season). MIA have Busquets and Messi, so they've been able to play through and against everything so far. Surprisingly, teams have left themselves open in transition and between lines, giving Messi space to run into. When that happens, Messi is Messi.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

RBNY ability to push the pace of the game.

MIA have been amazing; Messi and Busquets have been amazing. But RBNY, especially have a busy schedule around Leagues Cup and a midweek USOC game, are a bad matchup for them. The main question for MIA will be if the can - or want to - really compete in hard, chaotic MLS games. Did Busquets move to Miami to get kicked by Dru Yearwood? And, again, Miami played 120 minutes on Wednesday against CIN in USOC. The cards are dealt in RBNY's favor. RBNY have become slightly less chaotic under interim Troy Lesesne, but faster and angrier will likely be the main point of focus again MIA. If they can play fast and physical, they will have a stylistic advantage that models won't pick up.

Also, keep an eye on MIA rotation. Tata Martino has not mentioned plans to rotate, but logic suggests it could be a good game to give Messi and Busquets the day off.