Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | -115 | +270 | +270 |
| 53.5% | 27.0% | 27.0% | |
| Insights |
50.4% | 24.5% | 25.1% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -150 | +120 | -165 |
| 60.0% | 45.5% | 62.3% | |
| Insights |
51.2% | 48.8% | 53.3% |
What The Book Sees
The line suggests that SKC are roughly 2 xGD stronger than RSL over a full season, or .05 xGD/90. So far in 2023, RSL have been ~.1 xGD/90 better, though the teams have been basically on par the last 2 months.
What Insights Sees
The BI model projects that both SKC and RSL, accounting for absences to international duty for other teams, are both top-10 teams with this weekend's available lineups.
What we reasonably expect...
SKC will dominate the ball and the protagonist. RSL will likely be happy to sit in a 4-4-2 mid-block and wait for mistakes. When RSL drive forward, especially with new additions, they move very quickly and confidently.
The high-leverage variable will likely be…
SKC's ability to deal with RSL's attacking fluidity (likely through staying compact and prioritizing control over pressure).
SKC will generate a lot of possessions in the final third. RSL will have fewer looks, but their attacking movements are the type that give SKC problems; they are dynamic and quick while SKC uses a relatively immobile, non-combative group. SKC also want to press and force high turnovers, which creates higher risk/reward. If SKC can deal with the ~5 times that RSL arrives in the final third with momentum especially on transitions, then they should control the follow of the game and produce more good chances.
Also, more broadly, how much impact will Chicho Arango provide for RSL? It's possible/likely that the models are lagging to an older version of RSL that does not include Arango.