Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+165	+260	+140
	37.7%	27.8%	41.7%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	52.5%	23.4%	24.1%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-145	+100	-180
	59.2%	50.0%	64.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	55.4%	44.6%	56.1%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that LAG are roughly 20 xGD weaker than PHI over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects that LAG are a high mid-table team and PHI, without Blake, are a mid-table side.

What we reasonably expect...

The Galaxy will dominate the ball, slowing playing through lines. PHI will try to make the game as combative and physical as possible. When PHI are in possession, they will be fine to connect passes to draw pressure forward, but will be quick to bypass pressure and play into the STs. Once they regain possession in the final third, they try to connect simple passes again.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

LAG's CBs ability to deal with the running and physicality of PHI's two STs.

The Galaxy will dominate the flow of the game. The Union will likely have one main card to play: direct passes into the attackers moving into the channels to create even-numbered and unpredictable moments. If the Galaxy can control that action, they will neutralize PHI's main, only repeatable threat. The problem for that Galaxy is that they do not match up well against those moments. Specifically, their CBs aren't particularly interested in dealing with contact or doing the small details of defending. Running with strong, mobile STs into the channels is ugly, boring work. Mavinga and Caceres should have the ability to do it, if they maintain the focus.