Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | -165 | +300 | +400 |
| 62.3% | 25.0% | 20.0% | |
| Insights |
58.0% | 22.2% | 19.8% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -130 | +105 | -130 |
| 56.5% | 48.8% | 56.5% | |
| Insights |
55.2% | 44.8% | 53.8% |
What The Book Sees
The line suggests that Orlando is roughly 13 xGD better than Toronto over the course of a full season.
What Insights Sees
The BI model projects Orlando as the 18th best team in MLS and Toronto as the 26th best team in MLS.
What we reasonably expect...
Orlando will use a fluid 4-2-3-1 shape in possession. Their attacking play will rely on individual efforts more than any coherent team-wide approach. Defensively, they press as much as the average MLS team. That said, Orlando could see more opportunities to press an aging, injured Toronto team that currently lacks a permanent manager.
Toronto will try to keep the ball and play through their star wingers in possession, though neither Lorenzo Insigne nor Federico Bernardeschi have been as good as hoped this season. They’ll rarely step forward to press, instead choosing to limp back into a defensive shape to wait for an Orlando mistake in midfield before getting forward again.
The high-leverage variable will likely be…
Toronto’s Italian attackers or Orlando’s South American attackers changing the game.
At this point in the year, both teams rely more on individual brilliance from technical attackers than anything else. As a result, the biggest question in this game is: which team’s attacking firepower will actually fire? Orlando’s Martin Ojeda leads the team in non-penalty xG+xA this year, and the same goes for Insigne and Bernardeschi in Toronto. If one of those players finds an edge, so will their team.
Facundo Torres will miss this game with a suspension.