Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+230	+275	+100
	30.3%	26.7%	50.0%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	46.2%	25.1%	28.7%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-150	+125	-175
	60.0%	44.4%	63.6%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	51.6%	48.4%	54.6%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that LAFC is roughly 31xGD better than the Galaxy over the course of a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects LAFC as a top-5 team and LAG as a high mid-table side. We should note that the BI model views the Galaxy as the home team, even with this game being played at a neutral venue, which adjusts the mental calculation on this game.

What we reasonably expect...

The Galaxy will dominate the ball, using Brugman to build control and then Puig to progress into the final third. LAFC will be fine to let the Galaxy feel confident, win balls in the middle third, and then drive forward in transition.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

Puig's energy to defend transition moments.

We know that the Galaxy will have a lot of the ball; we know that LAFC will be fine with that and feel confident in their ability to create chances against the ball. Last time these teams played - and in most Galaxy games this year - the team willing to play on transition has succeeded. The Galaxy, though, should be suited to defend against transition moments: they maintain tight spaces in possession and keep 3+1 behind the ball. It seems to purely come down to interest levels. The main touchpoint is Puig. He's the orchestrator, meaning he's often closest to the ball after a turnover; in a well-functioning team, the closest to the ball needs to get immediate pressure.

Puig, however, tends to check-out immediately. After a couple clear moments of embarrassing lack of interest last game that must have been pointed out in video, plus a likely crowd of 70,000+ at the Rose Bowl, the Galaxy and Puig should be suited to improve their defensive transition defending.