Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+125	+250	+185
	44.4%	28.6%	35.1%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	46.2%	23.9%	30.0%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-145	+115	-185
	59.2%	46.5%	64.9%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	57.6%	42.4%	59.5%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that ATL are roughly 10 xGD, or ~5 spots in the table, weaker than PHI over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model views PHI without Blake (Gold Cup) as roughly the 10th strongest team in the league and ATL as a mid-table team.

What we reasonably expect...

ATL will dominate the ball and try to dictate the terms. PHI will be fine playing against the ball and waiting for mistakes. While PHI tend to press, they could be fine sitting in a deeper, compact mid-block and waiting to outmuscle ATL in the middle third. When PHI have the ball, ATL will press as high and often as possible, and PHI will likely bypass the press immediately for 3v2 situations against ATL's center backs.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

ATL's ability to match PHI's urgency.

ATL should be better than they've been performing (two wins in 11 games). Everything they do, though, suggests a lack of urgency. The way they approach throw-ins; the way they progress in possession; the way they press. You could perceive that as an easy fix or an impossible fix. When you have the bet "if they try, they will be good" in MLS, it's usually worth taking after Week 20. ATL also just played an intensity-based team (NYRB) and got rocked. The signs suggest that they should trend upward. If they don't, though, then it's hard to see how they don't get over-run by PHI.