Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-115	+255	+295
	53.5%	28.2%	25.3%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	57.4%	22.8%	19.7%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-110	-115	-130
	52.4%	53.5%	56.5%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	52.7%	47.3%	51.9%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that SEA are roughly 3 xGD (.09/90) stronger than ORL over a full season. So far in 2023, SEA have been ~.4 xGD/90 stronger, but only .2 xGD/90 stronger in the last two months, as ORL have improved and SEA have regressed from a fast start.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects SEA as a top-10 team and ORL as a bottom-10 side.

What we reasonably expect...

SEA will dominate the ball; ORL will sit in a mid-block and wait for mistakes. SEA will use Lodeiro from side to side to act as the unlocker or extra player in overloads. ORL's attack tends to be individualistic, with 1v1 situations and long-range shots.

The high-leverage variable will likely be…

SEA's ability to patiently build wide overloads in the final third.

SEA's main trait is the ability to use Lodeiro to create overloads and hit the golden zones at the edge of the 18. With that, ORL's haven't gotten much defensive support in wide areas; their wingers and attacking midfielder are pure attackers. Playing at home, with only 1 win in 7, it would be natural for SEA to try to speed up the pace of the game and impose themselves. It would likely be better, though, for them to slow down their progressions, take their time for find an overload, wait for ORL's wide attackers to get bored, and then move into chance-creation mode.