Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-120	+260	+300
	54.5%	27.8%	25.0%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	49.6%	25.1%	25.3%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-120	+100	-145
	54.5%	50.0%	59.2%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	49.1%	50.9%	51.8%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that LAFC are roughly 4 xGD stronger than SEA over a full season. So far this season, LAFC and Seattle have been roughly even in quality (LAFC with a marginally better xGD but SEA with a higher xP).

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects that both sides are top 5 teams in the league.

What we reasonably expect...

It's tough to predict LAFC right now. They had gone winless in 6 games, then went on the road with a weakened lineup to one of the hottest teams in the league and won. SEA will look to use the ball to create wide overloads and intentional high-quality chances.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

SEA's ability to limit transitions.

If we've learned one lesson about LAFC, it's that they are only average against a compact team (which also tends to be a universal truth in the sport). They are probably the best team in the league at punishing mistakes, but only league-average at passing through teams. That's likely more true when missing several of their top players (Bouanga and Acosta, in particular).

SEA, traditionally, have prided themselves on limiting mistakes and defensive transitions. It hasn't always been true in 2022. If they can limit basic mistakes playing out of their own half, and if they can keep four players behind the ball in attacking moments, then LAFC will have to take the initiative at a level they have rarely shown in the last few months.