Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-160	+290	+360
	61.5%	25.6%	21.7%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	60.6%	22.5%	16.9%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-140	+105	-155
	58.3%	48.8%	60.8%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	49.6%	50.4%	47.6%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that NSH are roughly 7 xGD stronger than STL over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects that NSH are a top-10 team and STL are a bottom-10 side.

What we reasonably expect...

A game with a lot of forward passes through the middle channels. Both teams like to play through their center midfielders, and both teams like to create chances out of chaotic, physical moments. NSH will likely use a Diamond midfield in attack, with Mukhtar as the point and Picault as a ST attacking the depth. STL will likely start in a compact 4-4-2 midblock, wait for NSH to move forward, and then spring into a 4-4-1-1 press. NSH will likely play into the ST as quickly as the press hits them.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

NSH's ability not to get too comfortable on the ball before STL's press.

It's tough to know exactly how STL will shape up, given they've played so few normal away games lately. But if the SEA and ATX games are any indication, then STL won't be as aggressive to press as their home games. They will press with just as much intensity, but not as high. NSH will have time on the ball in front of STL's block. And NSH's midfielders want the ball; they are excellent at moving the ball side-to-side, up-and-back to draw opposing defenses forward.

Once that press comes, NSH plays forward into the point ST (often for the second ball) or the second ST attacking the depth. STL, though, happen to be better at moving forward as a group than anyone in the league. They will both allow NSH more time on the ball, and close that space/time quicker. If NSH mis-reads that situation and tries to play more than they usually do, which STL will tempt, then STL will be happy to catch them off guard.