Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-235	+340	+550
	70.1%	22.7%	15.4%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	64.7%	19.9%	15.4%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-160	+125	-125
	61.5%	44.4%	55.6%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	58.1%	41.9%	52.7%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that LAFC are roughly 22 xGD stronger than Houston over a full season.

What Insights Sees

Even after Houston’s 4-0 win over LAFC on Saturday, the BI model projects LAFC as the strongest team in MLS and Houston as a bottom-third team in MLS. The model is intentionally slow to react to individual results — and it appears that the Book hasn’t budged on its evaluation of LAFC, either.

What we reasonably expect...

Houston will seek to control the ball, playing through their press-resistant central midfielders and defaulting to Hector Herrera’s positioning in most moments. Defensively, they’ll seek to constrict LAFC’s space by using a compact, risk-averse 4-4-2 block.

LAFC will spend portions of this game on the front foot, but will also be happy to play against the ball in a 4-3-3 mid or high block. They’ll attack vertically in transition and rely on their front three to create chances for them.

In terms of key absences, Houston will be without midfielder Coco Carrasquilla for this match, while LAFC will be without multiple starters for international duty.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

LAFC’s ability to dictate the first 15 minutes.

Against Houston on Saturday, LAFC allowed a goal in the 11th minute. That goal then allowed Houston to play against the ball for stretches of the match and forced LAFC to try to break through a more compact opponent. LAFC can create chances with the individual quality of their players, but seem to lack organized patterns in the final third. They also rely on set pieces to create chances more than all but one team in MLS, generating 33% of their xG from set pieces. If LAFC avoid conceding early, they’ll keep the game open. That’s what they want.