Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-105	+265	+235
	51.2%	27.4%	29.9%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	52.0%	23.8%	24.2%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-160	+120	-185
	61.5%	45.5%	64.9%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	53.6%	46.4%	54.8%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that VAN is roughly 2 xGD weaker than CIN over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects that both sides are top-10 teams, with VAN a couple spots higher.

What we reasonably expect...

VAN will try to be the protagonist and use the ball; they will use intentional rotations from their midfielders and outside backs to try to unbalance and play through CIN. CIN will be happy to sit in a mid-block and wait for VAN, and look quickly for Lucho Acosta in transition.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

Brian White's ability to pin back CIN's 3CBs.

CIN concede space and chances. They just happen to be very good at both ends of the field. Specifically, at the defensive end (which will likely play a bigger role, given CIN are on the road against a top-half team), CIN have 3 mobile, aggressive CBs who like to step forward to disrupt play. CIN are viewed as a "pressing" team, but they're actually among the top of the league at actions in their own defensive third.

CIN's approach should be well suited to play against VAN, who will likely use a single ST with two players underneath. CIN would love to make VAN feel like they have time and space and then arrive late into people's backs to disrupt play or intercept passes to drive forward.

As a result, it will be vital for VAN's ST Brian White to find ways to pin back CIN's center backs and make them feel like they can't step forward. If White can dictate the terms of those moments, VANs attacking midfielders will have plenty of space - CIN tends to start from a stretched position, leaving space between lines - and they should have the talent to exploit it.

Also, keep an eye on CIN's rotation, especially Lucho. CIN have had a packed schedule with USOC, and the away cross-conference game would be the natural choice to let players rest at home. If Lucho is out, it could be a 5% swing against CIN.