Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-175	+310	+400
	63.6%	24.4%	20.0%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	53.4%	23.9%	22.7%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-155	+125	-145
	60.8%	44.4%	59.2%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	51.9%	48.1%	52.9%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that CLB are roughly 14 xGD, or 8 spots in the table, stronger than CLT over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects CLB as a high mid-table team and CLT as a bottom-10 side.

What we reasonably expect...

Both teams want to use the ball, and both teams have intelligent, intentional actions through midfield to play through lines. CLB will press higher, and has been effective at getting the ball back quickly. CLT will likely prioritize control, especially playing on the road and experience an intense game at Philadelphia on Wednesday.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

Meram and Swiderski vs. CLB's right side.

CLB are deep in their depth chart across the back, going with a wingback at LCB on Wednesday; they ended up subbing a CM for a CB at halftime, too. Instead of looking at that left side, though, it will likely be the right side that plays a bigger role. CLT uses quick, dribbling attackers, so a wingback at center back shouldn't be a huge problem on the ball. It will be crosses and weakside actions that will be challenging. If Charlotte's LW Meram and CF Swiderski can unbalance the CLB starters on CLT's left side, then CLB will be exposed on the weakside - their left wide - in the box.