Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | +110 | +230 | +245 |
| 47.6% | 30.3% | 29.0% | |
| Insights |
46.8% | 25.4% | 27.8% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | +100 | -125 | -130 |
| 50.0% | 55.6% | 56.5% | |
| Insights |
49.6% | 50.4% | 52.9% |
What The Book Sees
The line suggests that NYCFC are roughly 10 xGD, or 5 spots in the table, weaker than CIN over a full season.
What Insights Sees
The BI model projects CIN as a top-10 team and the recent version of NYCFC as a mid-table team; NYCFC model lower without Magno in the lineup, as there's a material drop in player quality to the next option.
What we reasonably expect...
NYCFC will dominate the ball and try to play through CIN. They are at their best when the front four are fluid and connecting tight interchanges in the attacking central zones. CIN will be happy to play against the ball and wait for mistakes; they will connect passes in their own half to pull NYCFC forward, but use a quick trigger to bypass pressure and take even-number moments with their attackers in space.
The high-leverage variable will likely be...
CIN's rotation (especially Lucho).
CIN will have four straight midweek games, including USOC. Two of those games have been in a match in the altitude of COL and 120 minutes against NYRB, which are both taxing experiences. They will have the USOC Quarterfinal next Wednesday at home, with a home game this weekend. It would make sense to rotate at some point in the stretch, and the single away game would make the most sense. Lucho Acosta is one of the most valuable players in the league (probably close to 5%), and his absence would be a material miss for CIN.
One other note: CIN will be without Obinna Nwobodo (suspension), which should drop them by about 2-3% relative to the BI modeling.