Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+110	+225	+240
	47.6%	30.8%	29.4%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	48.8%	25.0%	26.2%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	+110	-140	-120
	47.6%	58.3%	54.5%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	50.1%	49.9%	52.8%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that NYCFC are roughly 4 xGD, or 2 spots in the table, weaker than PHI over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects both sides as top-10 teams and similar in quality.

What we reasonably expect...

NYCFC will try to use the ball; PHI will try to make the game as fast and intense as possible. Both teams will try to connect passes between CBs and CMs to draw the opponent forward. PHI will have a quicker trigger to play long to bypass the pressure, while NYCFC will attempt to play through the pressure on the ground.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

NYCFC's centerback's ability to deal with passes across the box.

NYCFC has been excellent at limiting exposure; they tend to allow teams to get to good spots, but not to turn those moments into shots. NYCFC have the 5th best (lowest) rate of allowing final third entries to turn into shots, demonstrating that they've been winning more duels than not in their defensive zones.

That said, PHI is very good at turning moments into shots. PHI has the highest rate in the league at getting possessions in the final third, and the second highest rate at turning those final third entries into shots. Their two physical, energetic strikers and often-arriving attacking midfielder are tough for opponents to track. NYCFC has invested in CBs, with one DP at the position, for matchups like this one.