Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	-115	+285	+265
	53.5%	26.0%	27.4%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	49.2%	25.2%	25.6%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-125	+100	-135
	55.6%	50.0%	57.4%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	48.8%	51.2%	51.7%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that CIN are roughly 1 xGD stronger than CLB over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects CIN as a top-10 team and CLB as a high mid-table team.

What we reasonably expect...

CIN will try to make the game as fast and unpleasant as possible. CLB will try to control the ball, pull CIN forward to stretch their lines, and play through the pockets. Both teams will likely play with 3CB sets and a true 10, who is the focus of the chance-creation.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

CIN's ability to start defending from a compact shape.

CIN do most things well at this point (though nothing, stylistically, particularly well). Their weakness, which is still mostly a subjective observation, is that they start their defending from a stretched position. Their two STs tend to be more than 30 yards from their center backs, leaving 15-20 yards between their lines. It creates the effect of rushing the opponent and creating a more opponent game, which they are happy to do with their attacking talent.

But it leaves them vulnerable to the right passing team. CLB are the most like "right passing team" in MLS; they are the most intentional, thoughtful possession team in the league. They will be happy to lull CIN forward and play through the lines. If CIN take the bait and let their front two wander, it will pull everyone forward and leave gaps in front of the 3 CB.