Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | -205 | +360 | +450 |
| 67.2% | 21.7% | 18.2% | |
| Insights |
58.7% | 22.9% | 18.4% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -165 | -135 | -135 |
| 62.3% | 57.4% | 57.4% | |
| Insights |
50.4% | 49.6% | 49.2% |
What The Book Sees
The line suggests that LAFC is roughly 18 xGD better than SKC over a full season.
What Insights Sees
The BI model projects LAFC as the best team in MLS and SKC as the 19th best team in MLS.
What we reasonably expect...
LAFC will use a 4-3-3 shape and try to move the ball quickly and vertically. They’ve had a ton of success in open-play chance creation and open-play chance restriction this year. According to the BI model, those two elements (along with their overall player quality) are this team’s most impactful traits.
SKC will likely struggle to deal with LAFC’s attack quality. They will try to possess out of a 4-3-3 — and they’ve had some success all around in recent weeks. Still, they’re a bottom half defensive team in MLS based on xG allowed and their inability to avoid leaking chances is the biggest thing hurting them, based on our model’s evaluation. As a result, we could see LAFC take advantage of a ragged SKC backline, especially in transition.
The high-leverage variable will likely be...
SKC’s transition defending.
Because LAFC love to attack on the break, they will be willing to cede the ball to SKC even playing at home in Los Angeles. So, when SKC lose the ball (which they will…they’re getting sharper, but certainly aren’t an elite attacking team at this point in the year), what happens next will be critical. Can SKC counter-press well enough to keep the ball in front of their inconsistent backline? Or will LAFC break forward and cause problems? The answers to those questions could define this game.