Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+100	+225	+260
	50.0%	30.8%	27.8%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	48.5%	25.5%	26.0%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	+125	-165	-105
	44.4%	62.3%	51.2%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	48.0%	52.0%	51.2%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that these two teams are relatively even in quality, projecting that NYCFC are just 1 xGD stronger than RBNY over a full season.

What Insights Sees

Insights sees a mostly similar picture here. Based on our model’s team ratings, both RBNY and NYCFC are upper-third teams in MLS right now. The model especially likes the Red Bulls’ defensive ability — to the point where it believes that it’s one of the strongest advantages that any team has in MLS.

What we reasonably expect...

RBNY will press. NYCFC will try to play through that pressure.

Even with a coaching change that saw Gerhard Struber leave the club and his assistant Troy Lesesne promoted to the head coaching position, the Red Bulls won’t change their identity. They press more than any team in MLS and they’ve allowed the smallest amount of xG per game in MLS this year, based on our data. They’re not an elite attacking team, but their xG for numbers are above average. Despite their place at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, both our model and the Book believe the Red Bulls are a good team.

NYCFC possess more than all but six teams in MLS and carefully build from the back, using their goalkeeper as an active part of their structure. Their attacking play has been inconsistent, but Nick Cushing has a clear attacking structure and a group of talented attackers to play within that structure.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

NYCFC’s ability to create against the best defensive team in MLS.

With their up-and-down-attacking outputs, it’s not a given that Cushing’s team will produce in any given week. It’s especially not a given this week with this matchup against the most aggressive and most successful defensive team in MLS this year, based on pressing and xG data. If NYCFC successfully play through or over RBNY’s pressure, break into the final third, and isolate their attackers against individual Red Bull defenders, they’ll have success.