Contents
The Numbers
| Moneyline (Regular Time) | |||
| Home | Draw | Away | |
| DraftKings | -160 | +295 | +360 |
| 61.5% | 25.3% | 21.7% | |
| Insights |
54.4% | 24.4% | 21.2% |
| Over/Under (Regular Time) | |||
| O 2.5 | U 2.5 | BTTS | |
| DraftKings | -120 | -105 | -125 |
| 54.5% | 51.2% | 55.6% | |
| Insights |
48.2% | 51.8% | 49.3% |
What The Book Sees
The line implies that SEA are roughly 11 xGD stronger than SKC over a full season.
What Insights Sees
The BI model views SEA as a top-5 team and SKC as a mid-table team. SKC, despite their record, create the most value through the middle portion of the field relative to their opponents, trailing only LAG in their ability to create value with the ball (this metric measures everything leading into the final pass that leads to a shot). SKC are just the worst team in the league that turning that control into goal-scoring chances. Teams that control the middle portion of the field tend to improve their ability to create chances, so we would expect SKC's overall ability to be somewhere between the two metrics.
What we reasonably expect...
Both teams will try to use the ball and create chances through progression; SEA is more fluid and player-driven, while SKC is more systematic and methodical. SEA tend to be very professional and smart about their approach, limiting defensive transitions and mistakes, while SKC have been the opposite this year.
The high-leverage variable will likely be...
SKC's confidence.
If you believe that SKC can/will still compete at the baseline MLS level, then they are good value. Watching their games, they are very likely better than the record suggests. That said, the team looked demoralized after last week's games and while giving post-game interviews. The bonus is that SEA will be without key central midfield, Joao Paulo. If SKC can get a head of steam, Joao Paulo would have been the calming force for SEA to withstand the momentum. With Joao Paulo out, it gives more leverage to SKC if they can find the emotional high.