Contents

The Numbers

Moneyline (Regular Time)
	Home	Draw	Away
DraftKings	+130	+225	+190
	43.5%	30.8%	34.5%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	33.6%	28.2%	38.2%

Over/Under (Regular Time)
	O 2.5	U 2.5	BTTS
DraftKings	-115	-110	-160
	53.5%	52.4%	61.5%
Insights Backheeled Insights proprietary algorithm combines a variety of factors, using machine learning to weigh variables. It is solely focused on MLS data.	40.8%	59.2%	46.9%

What The Book Sees

The line suggests that TOR are roughly 10 xGD weaker than NYCFC over a full season.

What Insights Sees

The BI model projects NYCFC as a top-10 team and a Hedges-less TOR as a bottom-10 team.

What we reasonably expect...

NYCFC will look to use the ball and set up central combinations around the box. They will be very fluid and unpredictable in attack, quickly chaning speeds from possession-mode to goal dangerous-mode. TOR will likely prioritize control over pressure, and use possession to set up 1v1 opportunities for Bernardeschi and Insigne.

The high-leverage variable will likely be...

Lorenzo Insigne's focus and sharpness.

Insigne returned to the starting lineup last week. Basing a team's level on something as simple as whether a player seems to want to try that day is difficult... but can a team with Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi be anything but a top-10 team in MLS if both of them are playing well? Insigne has looked mostly disinterested since arriving in MLS in 2022. Elite players at his level tend to turn it on at some point and light up the league. If that happens, TFC instantly become good value compared to recent performances.